Declining collector car market ??

[LVCamaro]

While surfing a few other forum boards, I noticed more than a couple opinions that proclaim/predict the collector car market is soft/weak and declining. Personally, I haven't seen ANY weakness on REAL cars with docs and/or owner history. With approx 30 days til B-J and other sponsored auctions in Scottsdale, I have to wonder what buyers are thinking as they register and arrange their banking for that auction week?

Frankly, from my perspective, I've seen several high-water transactions over the last several months. How about it...Colin, Stefano, Rich P, Chuck...have you guys seen evidence of a declining market?

SS

[olredalert]

--------Steve,,,Not saying there isnt a slowdown, but in my opinion very few car people spend big money shortly before B/J. Im not saying that we are going to spend our money at B/J (God knows I dont), but we wait to see if B/J will signal anything specific about the car market that we can get our teeth into. That and the season simply kill sales at this time every year. Some people with reason to worry start mouthing off about the sky falling and a few others start to believe it. Good cars still spell "good sales"!!!!.........Bill S

[quick-bowtie]

I stated this a couple weeks ago.. I think the market on good stuff is still alive and going strong! Numerous record sales were made just last month and a auction in IL. (I believe Russo put it on) and there has been a few other noteable muscle cars sales/deals done lately too. I think the market has slowed down but mainly on low end cars or cars that there are plenty off or ones that are cloned to no end! I dont think we'll see Barrett or Russo fall off to bad.. I dont know if we'll see the numbers like last year but I bet it will be good. Too many judge the market by ebay which is full of holes and scams or auctions like Mecum which I believe hurt the market because they put way too many of the same cars at 1 venue and there isnt enough buyers so then people thing the market is bad (great place to go see awesome cars but the logic behind what they do bogles my mind) + Alot of sales dont make it to public light. JMO.

[olredalert]

-------The Ill. auction was Mecum and you are right, many records set. Thats because Dana knows what he is doing. Auction companies sometimes dont have the luxury of picking which cars are going to be run thru. You seem to be making some kind of accusation about Mecum and thats just wrong! His auctions are just about the only ones out there I have any degree trust in. Possibly RM as well. Believe me, when there are too many of one type of car (lets say LS6s for example) the dealers will step in and pay decent, if not record setting, prices. You have to buy em to sell em!!! If there are a few weak sisters in the bunch, of course they will suffer more.........Bill S

[quick-bowtie]

The auction Im talking about wasnt Mecum. It was a private collection sold by I believe Russo. Its in this months Old Car Magazine. As for Dana I like the guy just question what they do sometimes?? and yes he does have the luxury of picking good cars why do you think he gets such killer cars at his auctions? Its because he is a good guy and is personable and the fact he has a reserve and the guys with good cars know theyre safe doesnt hurt anything either. But putting 5 LS6 Chevelles and 10 Z28 Camaros and so on at every sale is just insane too me, why not spead it out and make the guys that want them really bid? Your not going to bid to get the first couple Z28s if you know 10 more are coming up behind it thats just common sense. And alot of the guys at sales dont know how to pick up a magazine and buy a car that way, so the only way they get theyre cars are at the sales and they will pay if they think there is only 1 or 2 of the car they want Supply and Demand 101. I dont know to many dealers that will pay record prices unless its known as the best of the best, or there is a huge feeding frenzy of a certain type of car. Thats just how I see maybe Im wrong but to me to much of 1 thing just isnt good.

[Stefano]

I believe Andy was referring to the Capisie/Ford auction by RM.

[Stuart Adams]

Stefano Clean out your PM's.

I like #1 cars and usually pay too much, LOL. #1 cars and rock soild paper will always be good, IMO. Prices are kinda stabilizing a little it seems. Everything else is a crap shoot.

[bruno17]

I went to Mecum in Oct.hoping to capitalize on a stronger can.dollar and a "falling" muscle car price trend.I thought great cars with paperwork or "patina" were as high as I've seen.The ones that lured me there from the preview catalogue were not what I thought they'd be.Nice cars though......missed the dk.brown 69 442 4sp. that car was a deal! Anyone here buy it?

[mmcporter]

I'd be surprised if the market overall is dropping to any degree. I think there are short term contractions and hiccups similar to what's seen in real estate. Nevertheless, when you look at a graph spanning any significant length of time, the cars are net up overall.

[Mr70]

I don't see this as a decline happening,but more as a wider division in the market occurring.The really well done quality restorations,as well as rare or unique documented vehicles are asking AND getting top dollar today,and rightly so.
It seems to me that the driver quality,less attention to detail and more commonly produced vehicles that were once riding the financial coat tails of their better blessed brethren are now the ones that are having trouble selling at prices that are no longer seen as acceptable.

[budnate]

I think this sums it up best, that were once riding the financial coat tails of their better blessed breathern,

I have also noticed edgy/driver cars not selling out hear the last 6 months, last year they went fast, guys are getting a wakeup call on selling crap with so so paint joe average cant see through.

nice cars are just fine in the market.


[ QUOTE ]
I don't see this as a decline happening,but more as a division in the market occurring.
The really well done quality restorations,as well as rare or unique documented vehicles are asking AND getting top dollar today,and rightly so.
It seems to me that the driver quality,less attention to detail and more commonly produced vehicles that were once riding the financial coat tails of their better blessed breathern are now the ones that are having trouble selling at prices that are no longer acceptable.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Stuart Adams]

The average car price was inflated by the good cars, now average pocket books don't buy average cars.

[Zedder]

Some very good points here! I also think that the ceiling has been hit for driver quality cars and my experience is that anything more than $65K seems to sit for a while before it sells. Perhaps this is the top of the comfort zone for many? There is no doubt that "real" paperwork is carrying more weight than ever before and that "certifications" are not nearly as desirable nor as valuable as they were a year ago.

[Late BrakeU2]

Agree with youz guys.Like any other passionate hobby the deeper you get the more discriminating and refined those interests become.Lots of boomers bought muscle as a rennaisance to their youth,and that certainly allowed for the "all boats rise with the tide" effect of the last few years.The percentage of people who own them know relatively very little(or even care)about the stuff we are rabidily uncompromising about.So yes,the clones will continue to remain soft and the pedigree cars will hold their water because there are a limited amount of them in circulation,and enough purists with uncompromising taste.This doesn't even address the increasing costs of restoration-so a done car that's "all there" will not only offer instant gratification,the costs are finite,not to mention the anguish of waiting two years to enjoy it.
Of course for some the joy IS the restoration! http://www.yenko.net/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/beers.gif

[TDW]

Well, I will throw this out there. I have kinda, sorta, not really, thought about selling my 68 Z28. It is a pretty nice car. Juinor level Diamond Certified. NO factory paper. MacNeish documented as having the original, born with complete drivetrain. Notorized letter from the original owner stating it is real. I have talked to a couple of guys about the price. MacNeish says its worth 65 to 75, which seems pretty high to me, but what do I know? I am being told by these guys it is worth low 40's, as the market is going soft. I have seen some real nice, documented ones go for mid to high 40's. Who's right? I would think MacNeish would have a pretty good idea as to value, but the guys I have talked to do too. Mabey I answered my own question, by seeing what they are really selling for?

[quick-bowtie]

Just depends how fast you weant to sell it.. The guys telling you 40k are probably the ones who will write the check as soon as you say you'll take it and Jerry is probably thinking that is what its worth to the right guy looking for your car. Im sure Jerry has info on alot of Z sales that know one else would know about. To me personally his certification is just as good as any paper work..(at least you know he has taken the time to verify and look over the car) with all the fake paper work out there its kinda hard to believe it unless you get it verified the scammers are getting very good at what they do.

[rich p]

My 3 cents !

The problem is I feel a lot of big buyers have gotten BURNED to much lately with BS cars and being handed a line of #$^& at Auctions, ebay and dealers. I hear so much stuff and have to tell the guy he bought a car with NO Paperwork or a rebody or he paid to much and will NEVER get out of it. I hate to say it but auctions are a great hiding place for the garbage cars with all the EYECANDY and have been sucking these guys in. I'm not blaming the auction houses, they don't inspect these cars and are being told what they want to hear. I have strived for my business to sell cars with PEDIGREE and if I get word of a problem with a car I'm selling,it's removed NO MATTER how much I could or can make. How many people have done that? I work for less than ANY broker out there and still get that BROKER mentality. Love me or hate me but I say it like it is. I have worked hard at this and have taken a lot of heat. Sorry got lost !! Pedigree Pedigree the buyer will pay !! But we have to sift through the garbage to get to the REAL CAR that exist. The cars that are taking a hit ( I have said this for YEARS when asked about the market)will be the clones,NOM and then the cars without paperwork. But the owners of ALL three want ALL the money. Those days are over unless they find a sucker and they are out there. But not as much !!

BJ's is going to be HERO'S & Zero's this year. This is my prediction !!

Sorry for the Grammer for some of you !! http://www.yenko.net/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/scholar.gif NOT !

[Belair62]

I think you are right on...

[427freak]

Bill
Where do you think survivor cars of rare models in decent condition with low miles and paper fit into the picture compared to #1 restored cars w/paper, value wise?

[BUIZILLA]

when the real estate market goes soft, the car market follows right behind... but the skyscrapers still command the big bucks...

JH

[Zedder]

Tony, the only reason your car hasn't sold is that you really don't want to sell it! Buyers set pricing in any market, not appraisers or sellers. '69 Z's in the condition of your car are in the $60's, so how can anyone expect a '68 to be in that range also??? '68's just don't bring strong money. You've done your home work and asked many people about the car's value, so you know what it is worth today. My advice is to keep the car and enjoy it until you really need the money one day for something else http://www.yenko.net/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/beers.gif

[MYSTERYCHEVELLE]

I don't see it.. I only see Buyers being smarter and doing their homework.. if being smarter means less high end cars being sold that are not as described.. maybe that is seen as weak market.. but Quality and Docs always sell.. just my 2 cents and what I see.

Mike Crown

[TXSS]

I agree with much that has been said, but not all. Documents and pedigree are your safest bet but they're not the only game in town. Other wise how do you account for the ZL-1 powered Camaros I build selling for 90-95K. All in less than two weeks and some in less than 2 days. I can assure you my customers are not suckers and all have extensive numbers matching, documented collections. Including real ZL-1's and crossram Z's. I'm told the cars are a perfect fit for them because they get the look and the feel with out the risk. It's to risky, in some collectors minds to take a numbers matching ZL-1 or crossram Z out on Saturday and spank it. But I know for a fact that my cars get driven like they stole'em. I hope that trend continues because I've got a Christmas model coming out. Did I say I hope that trend continues.....I hope....I hope....I hope. http://www.yenko.net/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/burnout.gif

Rick

[firstgenaddict]

Survivors will continue to command the dollars... docs or no docs they are what they are.

[rich p]

The Mod cars(Touring) are a whole new topic. These are still selling for big money. Guys love old body style with modern technology. These cars are still doing very well.
Who doesnt like a 5 speed in their car?? Im a purist

[mc25t190]

Rare, desirable, low production, low color production,something no one else has,usually sells.

[rich p]

http://www.yenko.net/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/flag.gif I agree !!

[deuce-less]

in my experience, sometimes a rare or unusual color can be a problem when looking to maximize your return. while the better colors seem to only enhance desirability jmo http://www.yenko.net/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smile.gif

[firstgenaddict]

There is a difference between a rare (because of lack of buyer knowledge when the car was new) or scarce (they ain't around cause they were ugly from day 1)

[Stefano]

SS,
I think this would be a good time for you to sell me some of your cars real cheap http://www.yenko.net/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/tongue.gif Look at it this way, if the market is declining then you can buy them back for less later.

[Stuart Adams]

I get the original COPO!!

[P.J.]

Good one Stef
count me in too.
And Mark last Fall at the auction in Malton the 68 camaro 396/375 sold in the high 90s.
http://www.yenko.net/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/beers.gif
PJ

[Zedder]

PJ, we are talking about '68 Z's not L78's http://www.yenko.net/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/beers.gif