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Old 06-17-2023, 01:10 PM
KevinW KevinW is offline
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Change is always a slow process and at the same time can seem really rapid It all depends on technology.

Think of horse to auto/tractors, steam to diesel RR, passenger ships (and rail) to airlines, land line to cell phones etc.

But we still have horses for pleasure, stream trains are loved and restored (Big Boy 4014!), a healthy Cruise line industry (sort of, and the sad story of the SS United States). Land lines, no so much health there.

So the gas cars to electric will be gradual, but when you look back it will seem to happen overnight.

But the ICE industry will slowly move from the everyday transport to more niche uses. EVs and robotaxi's will be commonplace in Urban areas first. Rural, towing, Trucking and farm use will move more slowly. This of course is already happening and will accelerate.

Keep in mind that if there is a seismic technology breakthrough things can change in an instant! When is the last time you bought (or saw) a paper map in a service station after the advent of GPS and map apps.

Then if someone develops a cheap, powerful, environmentally neutral battery tech, progress will move very fast. I mean if Rivan/Tesla could drive/tow for over 500 miles for $20K, wouldn't you think about it?
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